By Nick Daggers
Follow Nick on Twitter @nickdaggerscfo
With the 2012 election in our rearview mirror we are all looking down the road to 2014. After a successful cycle the Democrats gained eight seats in the House but are still 18 seats short of the majority. There are plenty of race trackers and analysts that can offer their thoughts on which seats will be in play and why. I would like to offer a quick demonstration of what we can expect to see spent in a race for the majority.
A good case study to establish an estimate for 2014 spending is to look at the six (8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 17) competitive races in Illinois from 2012. According to the Center for Responsive Politics in the five districts won by the Democrats the campaigns and their allies spent a total of $20.5m, or an average of $4.1m per Democratic pickup.
The Illinois’ 11th and 17th Congressional Districts provide a microcosm of districts across the country that Democrats must win in order to take back the House. In both cases the DCCC was able to help recruit strong Democratic challengers (which will be key again in 2014) to take on popular Republican incumbents. In order to take back the house in 2014, Democrats will likely have to defeat at-least 20-25 Republican incumbents.
In the IL11 Bill Foster defeated Judy Biggert. Foster and his allies had to spend $4.88m in order to secure victory. The IL11 covers a diverse swath of the Western Suburbs of Chicago. Meanwhile two hours to the west is the IL17. In this district, Cheri Bustos defeated one-term Congressman Bobby Schilling. Bustos and her allies had to spend just shy of $4.7m to win.
While the races had many similarities they also had one glaring difference, they both fell into two very different media markets. The IL11 is in the Chicago media market, the third largest in the country, and the IL17 covers the Rockford, Quad Cities, and Peoria media markets, of which only the Quad Cities are a top 100 market. Since both districts cost about the same to win it helps demonstrate that no matter the media market, Democrats can expect to spend about $4.75m per Republican incumbent they can defeat.
The Democrats are looking at needing to spend $120m just to defeat Republican incumbents. That number does not include the 201 seats we will have to defend and the 100 plus seats that are safely in the Republican column, which can probably be estimated at-least another $200m.
Over the next 18 months we will see exactly how these races play out and if the Democrats and their allies can raise to take back the House. While we won’t know that final number for months to come, we can already guess that just like the past three election cycle we should all expect it to be another record year for campaign spending in the battle for the Speaker’s Gavel!
Nick Daggers is a Vice President of Development for CFO. He has spent the last five years working as a fundraiser for political campaigns and non-profits.